Coalition Formation in Europe Is in Theory Predictable

'Coalition formation in Europe is in theory predictable'. Discuss

Why predictable?
Possible coalitions in Europe?
History analysis
Countries:

  1. Germany
  2. Sweden, Denmark, Norway
  3. Netherlands
  4. Belgium
  5. Italy
  6. Ireland
Although coalition governments are uncommon for Anglo-Saxon countries, in Western Europe coalitions are the only way to understand European political systems.
The processes of government formation and dissolution, the role of the head of state and the working of the cabinet are all likely to be affected by coalitions. The strategies of political parties are likely to be affected by the knowledge that they will be unlikely to win power on their own but will have to share power with like-minded allies. (Bogdanor, 1983)
The link between party and coalition policy and discuss ways in which the analysis of party manifestos and government declarations might throw light on the issues that have been raised.
Some scholars provide review of coalition theory as it applies to all aspects of government formation and maintenance, but some concentrate only upon those aspects that have a direct bearing upon the interaction of party and coalition policy. Early theories were concerned almost exclusively with the rewards going to those politicians who got into office, rewards such as power, prestige and so on. More recent theories have been based upon the assumption that politicians are motivated in their coalition bargaining solely by a desire to affect public policy outputs.(Laver & Budge, 1992)

POLICY BLIND THEORIES OF COALITION GOVERNMENT – Office-seeking motivations(case study?)
Riker’s theory of political coalitions – the rewards of office, fixed prize to be divided by the winners of the coalition game. For this reason Riker’s famous ‘minimal winning’ proposition suggests that coalitions will compromise no more than the minimum number of actors necessary to achieve office.
Generally speaking, the...