Precis on Ripe of Rivalry

Ripe of Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multipolar Asia

Regionalization is now being a dominant trend in world politics toward fragmentation rather than unification. Conflicts in areas where outside powers once have felt their vital interests to be engaged with the end of the Cold War are now left to move forward undisturbed.

Most states have historically been concerned primarily with the capabilities and intentions of their neighbors despite of the advances in weapons and communication technology. This perspective created traditional patterns of strategic interaction that is said to become dominant again. The movement toward “multi-multipolarity” is being propelled by political developments as much as by shifts in the primary distribution of material resources. While United States will still be the single richest and strongest nation; it will still be apt to shed its power into every area of the world. In the meantime, other nations will become more capable of acting independently in pursuit of their own interests.

What is recounting in Asia is a contest between the accelerating dynamics of multipolarity, which could increase the chances of conflict; and the growth of explanatory factors that should tend to improve the prospects for a continuing peace. As underdeveloped as they currently are, the forces conducive to greater stability are probably in the lead, but this is due largely to a premature start.

Economic interdependence is progressing at a rapid pace, but its geographic scope is still limited, its political effects mixed, and its future course uncertain. On the other hand, competitive interactions favorable to greater instability could gain strength rather rapidly. However, the security dilemma would be an “amplifier of anxieties”, in which the defensive efforts of the participants kindle each other and feed back upon themselves. Once initiated, a multi-sided security mess up could hasten quickly to high levels of competitive military and...