European Centre Bank Working Paper

WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S
N O 7 1 3 / JA N UA RY 2 0 0 7

BALANCE OF PAYMENT CRISES IN EMERGING MARKETS HOW EARLY WERE THE “EARLY” WARNING SIGNALS?

by Matthieu Bussière

WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S
N O 7 1 3 / J A N UA RY 2 0 0 7

BALANCE OF PAYMENT CRISES IN EMERGING MARKETS HOW EARLY WERE THE “EARLY” WARNING SIGNALS? 1
by Matthieu Bussière 2

In 2007 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €20 banknote.

This paper can be downloaded without charge from http://www.ecb.int or from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=955762.

1 I would like to thank for helpful comments and discussion Mike Artis, Anindya Banerjee, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Marcel Fratzscher, François Laisney, Philip Lane, Helmut Lütkepohl, Tuomas Peltonen, Daniel McFadden, Michael Sager, Frank Vella and seminar participants at the European Central Bank and at the European University Institute. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. 2 European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; e-mail: matthieu.bussiere@ecb.int

© European Central Bank, 2007 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All rights reserved. Any reproduction, publication and reprint in the form of a different publication, whether printed or produced electronically, in whole or in part, is permitted only with the explicit written authorisation of the ECB or the author(s). The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. The statement of purpose for the ECB Working Paper Series is available from the ECB website, http://www.ecb.int. ISSN 1561-0810 (print) ISSN 1725-2806 (online)

CONTENTS
Abstract Non technical...