Aviation Industry

Aviation Scenario in Today’s World

With over 3000 jetliners on backlog and over 800 delivered in 2004, all signs indicate that we are just pass the high point of the jetliner “boom” in the classic boom/bust order cycle. But this has been a very unusual boom.

For one thing, 2003 was expected to be a recovery year, not a peak year. With well over 650 orders it turned into a peak year although 2004 matched it with over 700 orders. And then to use an overused metaphor it just kept going like an Energizer Bunny—2005 has already passed 2004 in orders within a 7 month period and with major orders from the likes of Virgin Atlantic Airlines, Emirates, Qantas, Singapore Airlines and Gulf Air still expected to come, 2005 could well be the peak year for orders placed in Commercial Aviation History.

Yet this cycle looks different. Airlines dint really queue up to place orders, rather manufacturing giants Airbus and Boeing pounded the pavement, aggressively selling aircrafts at a discount. In 2003, the leasing companies began to replace actual airlines in the order’s book—about 30% of the backlog now compromises lesser, who are essentially buying planes in the hope that the market will continue to grow. Jetliner pricing has been extremely soft with the list prices of both Boeing and Airbus remaining frozen from 2002-2004, the first time this has happened in a decade. In 2005 both manufacturer’s announced that they are raising list prices but list prices have become irrelevant.

Anecdotal evidence suggests rampant discount pricing with rumors of as low prices as 80 million dollars for the Airbus 330s that were bought by North West Airlines which are listed at 240 million a piece. Boeing is not to far behind who sold one of their latest commercial offering the 777-300 ER at a rate 160 million dollars below list price to launch customers Air France.

This largely premature and unprofitable upturn will result in future pain. There is terrific glut of narrow bodies...