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Fiancial Crisis

  • Date Submitted: 03/06/2013 10:37 PM
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http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E5%B9%B4%EF%BC%8D2012%E5%B9%B4%E7%92%B0%E7%90%83%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F
The entire period of the current financial crisis is divided into four phases that differ in intensity of the crisis and sentiment prevailing in the world financial markets. In particular, we distinguish (i) crisis initialization (1 March 2007 – 16 March 2008), (ii) crisis culmination (17 March 2008 – 31 March 2009), (iii) crisis stabilization (1 April 2009 – 31 March 2010), and (iv) crisis fadeout (1 April 2010 – 31 March 2011). Hence, we are able to compare level of the exchange rate volatility and its character under different market and economic circumstances.

http://www.managertoday.com.tw/?p=10953
從金融海嘯到歐債危機,全球經濟出了哪些問題?
出口導向經濟,也是災難間接兇手
《自食惡果》提到,2002~2007年,全世界充滿了浮濫的資金,信貸氾濫成災,等於告訴大家「過去你負擔不起,但現在燈光已經熄滅,你想幹嘛都沒人會管你!」許多國家因此有了盡情享樂和放縱的機會,於是美國、愛爾蘭、西班牙、葡萄牙都出現了類似的房地產泡沫。
不過,若把全球金融想像成一個大銀行,美國、愛爾蘭這些客戶之所以能借錢炒房,還要在海嘯之後借錢(發公債)來紓困銀行、提高政府支出,最後引發歐債危機,背後又是哪些客戶在努力存款,讓他們有錢可貸?
這個問題便指向引發金融海嘯的第三個因素:出口導向的經濟體。《金融斷層線》指出,經濟體系裡如果都是講求節約生活的人,就不可能繁榮,因為沒人花錢,就不會有人賺得了錢。近年來,美國、英國、西班牙等國家的花費已超過他們賺取的收入,因此只能舉債以弭平落差。而以出口導向為主的中國、德國、日本,以及台灣、南韓等國卻恰好相反。
美國、西班牙、英國等以政策鼓勵負債消費,在不景氣時,更被出口國視為救贖之道。我們依賴其他國家擴增消費來促進經濟成長,外銷產品、賺取外匯後,又用外匯存底買進美國(與其他國家)公債,等於再借錢給這些赤字國消費。然而這種不均衡的發展不可能長久持續,當赤字國少了房價高漲、紙上財富的支撐後,無力再擴增需求,就爆發家庭與政府的債務危機,而出口國也因此陷入不景氣。
繞了世界一大圈,我們才發現,每天拚外銷訂單的我們,竟也是金融海嘯、歐債危機的間接推手之一,我們也即將承擔歐債危機的部分後果。
(整理‧撰文‧編輯 / 劉揚銘,本文取材自《經理人月刊》2012年2月號)

http://economics.about.com/cs/analysis/a/trade_deficit.htm
Since the U.S. Dollar is weak, shouldn't that imply we export more than we import (i.e., foreigners get a good exchange rate making US goods relatively cheap). So why does the U.S. have an enormous trade deficit?
In theory, a fall in the exchange rates will cause foreigners to buy more of our goods and us to buy less foreign goods. When the value of the U.S. Dollar falls relative to other currencies, the U.S. should enjoy a trade surplus, or at least a smaller trade deficit....

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